Iran’s presidential election in 2024 is shaping up to be a three-way race

Stasis Consulting: The latest survey from Statis Consulting predicts the June 28 presidential election will be a close three-way race between two Principlist candidates, hardliner Saeed Jalili and moderate Principlist Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, and one Reformist candidate, Masoud Pezeshkian. According to this poll, Iranians have contradictory views of President Raisi’s performance during the almost three years that he was in office as the president of the Islamic Republic. Based on this survey, the majority of Iranians are against the way the government is dealing with the hijab issue. Most Iranians are also in favor of the idea of holding a national referendum on key issues.

This information is based on a representative poll conducted by Stasis Consulting between June 12-21, 2024, among 1,223 respondents. Based on the sample, there is a 95 percent confidence that the margin of sampling error is within ±2.8 percentage points.

An interactive visualization of the results of this poll can be found at the following link.

Iran’s presidential election in 2024 is shaping up to be a three-way race.

Iran’s presidential election in 2024 is shaping up to be a three-way race. Recent survey results indicate tight competition between the main candidates: hardliner Saeed Jalili, Reformist Masoud Pezeshkian, and moderate Principlist Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf. The poll shows that 27 percent of likely voters (n=566) support Jalili, followed by Pezeshkian at 25 percent, and Qalibaf at 17 percent.

Stasis Consulting predicts a higher voter turnout than in previous elections, estimating at least 46% participation. Stasis uses a proprietary likely voter model, analyzing responses to different questions (defined in the methodology section) to identify probable voters. As of June 21, nine percent of the electorate is still undecided, while 45 percent do not plan to participate in the election. Stasis predicts that estimated voter turnout will surpass 50 percent on election day.

Awareness of the election date among Iranians is higher than the previous Majlis election.

According to this survey, 51 percent of citizens know exactly when the presidential election will be held (June 28, 2024). This is a 23-percentage point improvement in crucial civic awareness among Iranians over the last parliamentary election, held four months ago.

Most Iranians believe the presidential election will be competitive.

Fifty-seven percent of respondents in this survey believe that the 2024 presidential election will be competitive, as opposed to 27 percent of interviewees who have a different view.

Iranians have contradictory views on President Raisi’s performance.

As expected, Iranians are conflicted about President Raisi’s performance after his tragic death in May. In every survey conducted by Stasis since President Raisi took office, Iranians have shown overall disapproval of his performance. Just three months earlier, only 32 percent of Iranians expressed approval of Raisi’s performance as president (link). However, in this survey, 66 percent approve of his overall job performance, as opposed to only 26 percent who disapprove. The approval of the Iranian president’s job performance over time has been visualized in this link.

In this survey, we further investigated President Raisi’s approval rating across different issues, such as the economy, youth concerns, foreign policy, dealing with corruption, and freedom or political liberties. Although his overall job approval is posthumously high, Iranians have relatively lower opinions of his performance on specific issues. Among the top five issues, Raisi only achieved majority approval for his handling of corruption. Fifty-six percent of respondents approve of Raisi’s approach to corruption, followed by foreign policy (43 percent), the economy in general (41 percent), youth issues (39 percent), and freedom or political liberties (33 percent). Moreover, 56 percent of respondents disapprove of his performance on the economy in general and 54 percent disapprove of his approach to youth issues.

Iranians do not see Raisi’s death causing any challenges for the country.

Just 14 percent of Iranians say President Raisi’s death will cause challenges for the country, as opposed to 62 percent who have a different view, including 55 percent of respondents to this survey who believe his death will cause very little or no challenge for the country. Respondents with a college education (n=368) and those who live in urban areas (n=959) are more likely to say that the president’s death will not cause many or will cause no challenges for the country, with 71 percent and 62 percent, respectively.

Apart from the economy, youth concerns are the most important issue that a new president should focus on.

Thirty-nine percent of Iranians named youth concerns as the “most important” issue that a new president should focus on when taking office. This is followed by unemployment at 32 percent, the cost of living and inflation at 23 percent each, and affordable housing at 18 percent.

This was an open-ended question and we asked respondents to consider issues beyond the economy. It was also a multi-response question, meaning that respondents could name more than one issue, resulting in the sum of responses exceeding 100 percent.

Most Iranians oppose the government’s approach to women’s veiling practices.

Iran’s government has tried to impose strict penalties, such as fines or imprisonment, upon women who do not follow compulsory hijab by refusing to wear a veil in public. Sixty-eight percent of Iranians say they oppose the government’s strict penalties for women who do not wear the hijab in public, including 61 percent who completely disagree.

The level of disagreement with the government on this issue is consistent across two main demographic groups, age and gender. However, college-educated Iranians or those residing in urban areas are more likely to express their disagreement.

A majority of Iranians dislike the Guidance Patrol (Gasht-e-Ershad) and prefer optional hijab.

According to this survey, 55 percent of respondents say they are against the way the Guidance Patrol is handling its job of dealing with women who do not comply with compulsory hijab. Those who agree with the Guidance Patrol’s role consist of 37 percent of the population.

In response to the question measuring Iranians’ agreement or disagreement with optional hijab, 54 percent agree that hijab should be optional vs. 43 percent who disagree. Educated Iranians or those residing in urban areas are more likely to express their agreement.

Iranians are in favor of the idea of a referendum.

Most Iranians are in favor of the idea of a referendum, with 77% agreeing that in the case of important economic, political, social, and cultural matters, the people of Iran should have the power to call a national referendum to resolve differences. The level of strong majority agreement with the idea of a referendum is universal across different demographic groups. These results are comparable to our May 2021 survey, in which 81% of respondents were in favor of a referendum.

Methodology

Survey methodology explained below:

Telephone interviews were conducted between June 1221, 2024, among 1,223 respondents aged 18 and older living in Iran. Native Farsi speakers conducted the interviews during daytime hours.
The proportional two-stage sample includes respondents from every province. Provinces have been sampled based on their population.
Out of 1,223 respondents in unweighted data, 78% live in urban areas and 22% live in rural areas. Additionally, the sample consists of 58% male and 42% female respondents. Seventeen percent fall into the 18-29 age group, 73% in the 30-64 age group, and 10% in the 65 and up age group. All provinces except Tehran are represented in the sample by no more than ±2% of their population share. The province of Tehran is underrepresented by 5.1% in this unweighted sample.
Results are weighted by gender, age, location (urban vs. rural areas), and adjusted for Tehran’s province based on the Iranian national census of 2016, the 2018 statistical yearbook, and Iran’s Statistical Center demographic predictions for the year 2024.
Based on the sample, there is a 95 percent confidence that the margin of sampling error is within ±2.8 percentage points.
Rates of respondent candor and reliability were appraised by experienced interviewers. Fifty-eight persons found to be lacking in these areas were removed from the sample and are not included in the final sample or in this report.
The response rate for this survey was 32.3%.
Stasis uses a proprietary likely voter model, analyzing responses to questions 13, 14, 16, and 26 to identify probable voters. Criteria for likely voters include a) those who express a likelihood of voting in question 14, b) do not respond with “I don’t know / Refused to answer” in question 13, and c) do not select vague options (it depends or made no decision yet) in questions 14, 16, and 26.